ChatGPT can now predict fashion and beauty trends

This article on AI trends is part of our Vogue Business membership package. To enjoy unlimited access to our weekly Technology Edit, which contains Member-only reporting and analysis and our NFT Tracker, sign up for membership here. An eyeshadow palette connected to a moodboard-style playlist, a branded pop-up museum and a trench coat with hidden pockets: these are among the new ideas most likely to tap into the emerging consumer zeitgeist, according to a new trends report informed by generative artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT. AI platform Spate used a year’s worth of its own data — starting in April 2022 and spanning two billion Google Search signals — to identify trends across 12 categories (beauty, fashion, arts and entertainment, food and beverage, social issues, design, sports, tech, events, finance, home and pets). Then, it fed the Spate trend results into ChatGPT and asked it to uncover underlying themes and behaviours. Human researchers curated the final findings. Generative AI tools, including ChatGPT, stand to make the art and science of trend forecasting far more comprehensive and efficient than current processes that use machine learning, says Olivier Zimmer, co-founder of Spate. In addition to being able to “connect the dots” across multiple diverse categories to generate findings and custom recommendations by industry or brand, it can also save time. Normally, category-specific trend analysts would need to manually sift through and interpret data signals and then connect findings with those from analysts studying other categories, Zimmer says. This process could take a full year for a traditional agency. Now, he says, this type of research can take hours. Generative AI was able to better identify hidden patterns between the various data points, adds Spate co-founder Yarden Horwitz. Zimmer and Horwitz are former Google Trends researchers who led Google’s Trendspotting division, including developing a way to predict the lifecycle of trends based on what people are searching on Google. In 2018, the two founded Spate, based on what they knew about analysing Google Search data, focusing on beauty and wellness for companies including L’Oréal and Estée Lauder. Now, with ChatGPT, its founders say, the company is able to analyse consumer trends across multiple categories, meaning that Spate no longer specialises only in beauty. “So much work is put into understanding the consumer from a holistic perspective. Ultimately, it’s the same consumer who is looking for the latest trendy skincare ingredient, mortgage interest rate or a zucchini recipe.” Zimmer cautions that ChatGPT can’t do all the work for you but rather that it’s a starting point or a way to refine ideas. “It will be a very important tool to help brands reduce the time and energy that goes into the more tactical parts of your work process.” There is still a need for high-touch, sophisticated human input. The process of generating a prompt for tools like ChatGPT can be quite complicated and has led to a new field of prompt engineers who specialise in this capability. Exact prompts are often proprietary — somewhat like the formulas or materials used to create products — so creators often don’t share them publicly. Recommendations and takeaways also need human curation. “Generative AI is a wonderful technology, but at its core is a next token (or word) generator — predictive text on steroids. While this is extremely powerful, one has to be cautious about expecting generative AI to generate interesting insights from data,” warns Michael Ross, SVP and chief data scientist at trend forecasting firm Edited. Still, the rewards are worth it, Spate’s co-founders believe. For brands, an earlier insight into emerging trends means a headstart in developing new products or marketing, Horwitz says. “You can use that, as a brand, to get much further ahead,” she says. Spate has exclusively provided a look at the key trends in its report through a fashion and beauty lens for Vogue Business. They also created prompts for ChatGPT that asked for product and marketing suggestions based on the data; in other words, ChatGPT offered suggestions for how fashion and beauty brands might ultimately develop new approaches. “Out of all the categories, I think the fashion and beauty industries would benefit the most from this type of analysis because fashion is a depiction of culture,” Zimmer says. Trend 1: Craving authenticity in the sea of sameness Broadly speaking, people are moving away from generic experiences in favour of niche sports and unique entertainment, according to Spate’s research. At the same time, they appreciate the ease of mass production. “Consumers are getting more niche at scale,” Horwitz says. “People want a bit of artistry in a convenient way.” This might manifest as a niche sportswear line (hill-running and river surfing are on the rise) or a branded podcast that tells the stories behind the products. Luxury brands might tap into this trend by offering bespoke design services or enabling customers to co-create or personalise their pieces — a trend that is already playing out among Web3 fashion projects from Nike, Rtfkt, Diesel and Lacoste. Brands might also offer rare or vintage fabrics; Prada, for example, has offered phygital capsule collections made out of heritage fabrics. This ethos could similarly apply to beauty with limited edition drops, such as a collection featuring artisanal packaging designs from local artists. L’Oréal-owned YSL Beauté has developed an AI-powered custom lipstick machine that blends shades for consumers at home. Finally, a brand might also open a pop-up museum or exhibit in place of a traditional store. Gucci, for example, recently hosted a Gucci Cosmos exhibit in Shanghai featuring its 102-year journey, while Clinique has created a virtual immersive lab that shares insights into some of its most well-known products. Trend 2: Navigating the digital minefield There is growing demand among consumers for a balance between physical and digital, modern and traditional, the report found. Nostalgia for the past is mixed with an interest in the metaverse, again highlighting a unique tension among consumer signals, Horwitz says. For the luxury industry, this highlights a need to combine exclusivity and tangible brand heritage with digital sophistication. Louis Vuitton, for example, established a top-tier client group with its Via Treasure Trunk NFTs, tied to exclusive digital and physical products. This merger of high tech and nostalgia might also blend in physical products — as seen in smart eyewear releases from Meta and Amazon that mimic classic frames. Similarly, an accessories brand might release a smartwatch that resembles an analogue predecessor. A beauty brand might develop a vintage-looking hairbrush with LED lights with digital capabilities like measuring hair health or release an eyeshadow palette with a QR code that gives access to a corresponding playlist. Customers are also looking for sensory experiences, Horwitz says. A future handbag, for example, might give off a signature scent, or a brand might offer a digital detox retreat — the antithesis of an influencer trip. Customers might appreciate an in-store art class or special geo-cached finds, meaning content or perks that are limited to certain locations. Louis Vuitton, for example, recently covered historic landmarks in art through a Snapchat partnership. Trend 3: The pursuit of betterment and resilience This trend identifies a desire for self-improvement, resilience and personal agency. The luxury industry can adapt to this interest with products that symbolise durability and adaptability and reinforce the idea of enduring value, Spate found. For example, a brand might tap into a “survival mindset” with functional elegance, Horwitz says — ChatGPT suggests a trench coat with hidden pockets. Brands might also increase their efforts to provide services that increase the longevity and repairability of their products or offer pieces that can be adapted to multiple scenarios. These suggestions are the first time that Spate has offered analysis beyond beauty, but they signify a total shift in how trends are identified, Zimmer says. Going forward, the researchers are seeking feedback from brands and, based on that feedback, will explore next steps. “We will continue to explore ways to leverage generative AI in our processes and reporting for the purpose of getting actionable insights in the hands of our clients faster,” Horwitz says. To receive the Vogue Business newsletter, sign up here. Comments, questions or feedback? Email us at feedback@voguebusiness.com.

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